I Miss Science

Science is based on laws and these laws are universal. It works everywhere, anywhere, everytime and anytime. But for civil services, I am only concerned about humanities subjects right now and there are hardly any rules and it is almost impossible to predict how things will turn out to be. Consider policy making and marketing - one can gather all the data, analyse it and build models and make predictions but it will all depend on how people react. No two people are the same and they will react in widely different ways and that is because no two persons grew up in the same way, had the same experiences which influenced their thinking and hence they don't think alike. Finally, even if we can group individuals according to similarities- age groups, income, gender, profession, education, region, religion- expecting them to act in their own interest or according to obvious common sense and logic (a) too will only make us realise that we can only approximate and make estimates. Sometimes we act in short term interest, sometimes we act considering the long term future- even we do not know how we will react until the situation comes.

How do people react to a stock market crash? It is silly to sell right now because the prices are falling, but if people have the common sense to wait it out and hold on to these stocks which will eventually have to return to their normal prices, they will not lose everything. But then there are the really smart individuals who try to short sell stocks or buy up when prices are dirt cheap. Make hay while the sun shines or just follow the croud and take a jump from the cliff? If we say that the smart ones will make hay, then I guess Lehmann Brothers were not that intelligent at all. We know that we shouldn't be polluting our environment and burning more fossil fuels, we know that wars are a waste and yet the defence industry is world's biggest employer. We are still not sure whether it is more important to feed millions of our hungry brothers and sisters or to splurge on fighter planes, we are not remotely guilty on spending on pleasures and complain about our own misfortunes and not value the things we have in life ,while millions suffer from worse fates.

It is not just human beings, but results of our actions, weather phenomenon and geography too that defies our comprehension and prediction. A tsunami may or may not happen and an earthquake can happen anytime. We cannot predict how exactly climate change will affect us (we do not even agree on climate change), we are not sure how the monsoon will be and how GM crops will affect us and how to handle antibiotic resistant bacteria. We cannot comprehend or measure how one action will have a lot of complex domino effect on sometimes unrelated issues, we cannot quantify everything all the time- the benefits of literacy can hardly be measured, nor can we say with certainty the benefits of job guarantee schemes- they go far beyond the income generated as they prevent distress migration that leaves people vulnerable to exploitation by mediators and employers, it does not break their children's education, immunisation and health and protects them from child labour and the elderly are not left behind to fend for themselves in their homes and many more positive outcomes that we cannot predict and generalise.

Thus, there are thus two issues with all humanity subjects- our inability to comprehend and understand our own nature and exact workings of the physical world we live in. The most confounding is when unpredictability of nature meets our own strange nature. Rain, drought and floods- we do not know what may happen and how it will specifically affect and we do not know how we will react to them. Sometimes we might have the science in place, but our nature and unpredictability means that we cannot do the right thing- we are not implementing renewable energy to the extent we need, we do not deal with issues like malnutrition and child deaths properly. We can only approximate, make rules as we go along and constantly adapt without sticking only to scientific facts since there is a lot that is not amenable to laws and facts.

The scientific answer to these problems are very simple, that is how we frame policy too. But then, in implementation we fail. There are too many dynamics at work- selfishness, greed, lazyness, ignorance, short-termism, religious beliefs and superstitions and complacency. Most of the development schemes in India fail due to corruption or poor design based on poor input into the decision making, as individuals making these decisions have the wrong priorities or incomplete ideas about the real problems- both point to our inability to understand ourselves and how things work in this world. There are no scientific explanations to these, each individual and situation is unique in the real world and perhaps that is why the civil service examinations are more about humanities subjects and there is a real bias against science and engineering subjects. There is no direct relationship between input and output- one cannot measure the success of a literacy campaign comparing the cost and income generated to government or even using the number of people benefited- the benefits could multiply since they will decide to teach their children and parents and siblings, read newspapers to become aware and responsible citizens, learn more about healthy practices or unfortunately some of the could drop out due to financial or health pressures.

In order to improve sanitation facilities, simply constructing a toilet will not do. The scientific solution will include adequate water, lighting and waste disposal facilities. Thrown in economics and you get low cost of building and maintaining it, ergonomics gives us adequate lighting leading to the toilet for common toilets and common sense will make us design it to be theft-free. But then no one could have seen this coming b nor would science explain the reasons for vandalism. As I said before, I have realised that science has a limit, it does not have answers to all our problems but it can point us to a solution, but getting there is a challenge in itself. Using the comparison from the movie Lincoln, Science can show us true north to reach our solution, but humanities is required to tackle all the swamps and forests and rivers that come in our path.

The job of a civil servant is to give the right input and to implement policies and this requires a clear and as complete as possible understanding of ground realities and then implementing them in spite of the obstacles and constantly changing and beyond apprehension circumstances. A scientific approach can only say one has to adapt to survive, it is by learning subjects that do not have specific laws and constants that a civil servant can realise that only thing one can do is give it our best, use our hardwork, patience, intelligence and all the skills we can muster and face the situation. The emphasis on humanities subjects for the exam is perhaps the apt training and selection method.

As for me, I learnt Chemistry and Electronics and I miss those days. It was simple and solvable, an equation will give us all the information we need, a circuit or a code can simply do the job and at the right conditions and catalyst, we can prepare the compound we need. A bit of lateral thinking and deep subject knowledge is enough and I miss those days.

High Impact Exams- Analysis and Recovery

For the last 3weeks, there has been little along the productive side except 10days of working out, lot of sleep and most importantly chill out and then freak out about what would happen in the future. I would be lying if I said the exam has not had an impact on me and for sometime, I thought it was just me, that it was just my usual habit of being apprehensive and nervous about everything, but realised that almost everyone who takes this exam is just as scared and apprehensive. It has been difficult to do anything that requires brain work, not because there are no motivations since I have done a lot of things without any motivation. It is only because UPSC civil service exam was high impact and I would like to figure out how and why the hangover is still not wearing off.

I have faced tougher exams with averages around 20%, highest score was near 50% and everyone was swearing at the person who set the paper. We felt they were trying to prove a point, it was almost a vendetta. This has happened a lot of times too. I have also faced exams where I have been downright pathetic (10 out of 75) but there were people who were disappointed they would get only 70  out of 75. There have been exams where the syllabus was simply too vast to cover for a normal human being and yet in none of these situations have I experienced the sort of fear or apprehension that I currently feel.

I have written exams that have determined my future- AIEEE, JEE, BITSAT and I have been pathetic in some, decent in a few and been depressed due to my own failure. I have faced the uncertainty too since results were out only after a couple of months. I had spend two years preparing for these entrance tests and yet nothing compares with the impact that the civil service exams have had. In fact, the dedicated preparation for civil service exams lasted for just 7months. Even though the gap between each stage is only 3months, it adds up to a process that takes well over a year and that nearly exhausts our patience.

Over 4.5lakh people apply for civil service and only 2.5lakh take the prelims and then only around twelve thousand qualify for mains. So the number of people applying wasn't highly significant. One could say that those who qualified for the mains exam were highly competitive and I have not competed with such high numbers. The only similar experience being the battle against 600 batchmates during the first two years in college and a large majority of them were extremely competitive.

Chemistry was a subject that I was very used to and perhaps the only time in college I put my heart and brains into a subject. It did bring a lot of success and happiness to me and so preparing for Chemistry optional paper wasn't a colossal task. The essay paper too was not totally new to me thanks to my habit of blogging, pointless free writing and rambling on about even insignificant issues. But there was preparation practice required for these too, adding to the over all impact.

This how the impact took shape, not on their own or all of a sudden- they added up to form one huge complex force- a huge syllabus, long gestation period, competition, life altering experience and the difficulty in syllabus have not come together at the same time ever before. However, the major impacts came from a few issues that I have not faced before.

The syllabus covered was definitely vast, with General Studies alone enough to drive a person into insanity. The mere fact that it has no specific syllabus except vague statements like issues of current national and international importance, science and technology meant that one had to swallow a lot of information and analyse them. Public Administration was entirely new to me and had to start from scratch here. I was then informed that rbrn those who have been teaching public administration for over 30 years haven't become experts in the field and cannot comprehend it fully. Add to it the issues of Indian public administration, its evolution and the challenging times we live in, the labyrinth made me lose my mind at times. Another challenge was about writing 2 exams of three hours each every day and that too on consecutive days. It was physically draining, but the scheduling made it a bit easier. After GS on the first day, non-evaluative language papers on the next day meant little pressure and the essay paper as the lone exam on the third day gave a little breathing space for public administration two days. Chemistry was a good 10days later and this meant even though the schedule was challenging, it was not a harrowing experience.

After the exam, it is the fear and apprehension that remains and the extremely scary worst case scenarios. These too add to the impact through regular aftershocks. Thus, the coming together of a lot of small incremental factors and a few major factors mean that the exam has an impact that does not easily wear off. In fact, I am glad that there is a 3month break before the next stage because for the last few months, it has just been about me- me wanting to do the exam well, me wanting to study a lot, me spending most of my time reading and writing, me being aloof from everything, me giving up a lot of things that I like, me, me and me. I even lost focus of why I want join the civil service in the first and it too was infiltrated by the "me, exam" obsession.

It is time to get back to shape, literally and figuratively, since I have gained not just a few extra kilos. Need to get back to quizzing, novels, movies, but most importantly if I am to get what I want or rather be what I want and do what I can because I deserve it, I have to gain back why I want to do this and only that can make all this effort and hardship worthwhile.

Optionals, Fear and Madness

I have no tales to tell and the tales I want to tell do not want to jump out on to a screen, but they want to appear on paper. It wants to be struck off, over written, torn off and thrown away and then take shape- a poetic way of saying I want to write and not type.But do indulge me for what is to come is far worse than what has been said.

I would like to talk about Public Administration and Chemistry, to be more specifics, the similarities between the two subjects apart from the fact that they were my optional papers for civil service exam. Do not fear a tirade about how my exam went, it is not significant but the level of madness and even stupidity that was the entire venture would be clear if you read on.

Firstly, Chemistry and Public Administration are about developing theories to suit observations. Then, theories explain these observations which were made on the basis of the very same observations. For example, quantum mechanics and its postulates like nodes (areas where probability of finding electron), spin quantum number are theoretical concepts and have little or even no physical equivalents. But they were developed to explain wave functions and phenomenon like paramagnetism. In Pub Ad, ideas like New Public Management, New Public Administration evolved according to needs and aspirations of the people, it was influenced by the situation on the ground and to address these situations, new ideas came forth.

As the observations change, theory keeps changing too and even going back to old ideas- initially administration was about minimal state involvement but this involvement should be organised and formal. But NPA and NPM concentrated on greater government involvement to address concerns of the time and now, it is back to minimalist government that empowers people and reduces the power and discretion in the hands of government. This is true of any science and in chemistry, the formation of a bond is a theory that has undergone "radical" changes- from the simple dot structure to wave functions of valence shells overlapping to now the entire atomic orbitals interacting with each other. This is an example of not just the evolution of the fields and its rapid evolution, but also theory suiting to fit ground realities. Even the concept of formation of activated complexes in the transition state theory was used to explain observations and where later proved
right (similar to the Higgs-Boson hypothesis)

Wilson and Weber wanted to give a proper structure to government administration and initial theorists like Fayol, Taylor, Follett were the first to propose ideas and build fundamentals. They were then discredited as mere proverbs and were then substituted with a more humanitarian view of the field of administration by Simon, Bernard, Argyris and Maslow. In chemistry too theories were built, discredited and then new ones established- right from the valence bond theory to formation of molecular orbitals.

Another one is about organic chemistry where very few reactions follow a general pattern set for compounds of a particular, the reactions are unique and exceptional and depend on the temperature, pressure, concentration of reactants and products, their stability- in short, the environment. This is what F.W.Riggs said about administration too- one must consider the ecology in which the administration works to get a proper understanding of the administration. As the conditions change, the administration also changes.

This is also an example of inaccuracy in predicting the outcome of reactions using theory. Predicting outcomes based on theories is not an accurate process. This leads us to is the bounded rationality theory developed Herbert Simon- we make decisions based on information available to us about conditions, influences, resources, restrictions and also needs and requirements. But the entire information is not available to us which circumscribes our ability to make decisions or predictions in the case of chemistry. This is very true about organic chemistry and public policy making- we do not know how people will react to a policy, we do not know how the markets, industries, agriculture and common man will be affected by allowing FDI in retail and we are not sure whether it is a positive or negative chance. In chemistry too, what factors influence a reaction or even how exactly a reaction proceeds is unknown to us and the best we can do is make predictions. We can accurately solve wave function for only 4systems since it is almost impossible for us to consider the various electron-electron repulsions and electron-nucleus attractions.

Thus, inability to predict outcome based on theory and so having to use trial and error to fix up a particular theory or decision, incomplete knowledge and inability to comprehend influences and events, making theory based on observations and then proving them (which is of course what science is all about), the evolution of this theory (creation, acceptance, destruction and then new theories), importance of environment and very few possibilities of a general cover it all concept are some of the aspects similar to both Chemistry and Public Administration.

I do not say that this is a sane idea, there will be similarities between all fields however insignificant, narrow and far apart they are. But these are the two subjects that I opted for a mind-numbing series of exams and for which I did prepare. This one is more like an answer to a straightforward question- "You have studied these two subjects. Are there any similarities and if there are, what are they?"

As for my assessment about my exam, it keeps shifting each day. Some days I feel I am in with chance, quite reasonable one too. Some days, for no apparent reason I feel insecure, scared and hopeless. This keeps shifting and I feel hopeless about different papers each day- one day it is GS, another day Chemistry. A week later it is Malayalam and then it is Pub Ad. So the next three months are going to be a cycle of this- incessant mood swings, uncertainty and sometimes even fear and depression.